Lessons of a Decade: Forecasting Follies
"Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the central bank is already developing plans for a world without Treasury securities and gave members of the bond industry something of a nudge to begin their own planning . . . Mr. Greenspan expressed confidence that worker-productivity gains will continue enabling the nation's debts to be paid off relatively soon."

Gregory Zuckerman, "Greenspan Encourages Bond Market Professionals to Prepare for World without Government Debt."  Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2001.

Mr. Greenspan's exuberant turn-of-the-millennium forecast clearly missed the mark.  But in fairness, the Fed Chairman was hardly alone.  The decade yielded numerous erroneous predictions that should remind investors that forecasting developments in capital markets is a precarious business. . . .

 Inside This Issue
The Roth Conversion and Tax Risk
Promises, Promises
The Death (Defying) Tax
The High-Yield Dow Investment Strategy
The Decade at a Glance
Recent Market Statistics
Recommended Investment Vehicles