AIER’s founder E.C. Harwood studied business cycles and financial markets for over five decades, beginning in the 1920s. Shortly before his death in 1980 he observed:

“Neither AIER nor AIS is a run-of-the-mill organization. The striking differences are:

1. Unlike practically all other economic research and educational organizations, AIER does not seek support from major foundations. In order to preserve its independence and freedom from influence by sources of great wealth, AIER’s primary support is sought from thousands of individuals.
2. AIER’s publications do not sacrifice scientific accuracy in the interests of finding a broader market by misleading simplification. AIER does report its findings in plain language without euphemisms intended to avoid antagonizing some readers, but it does not sensationalize or depart from accurate reporting.
3. AIS follows AIER’s example as is described above and is otherwise different from most investment services:

a. No predictions of market movements ever are offered. On the contrary, the impossibility of successfully forecasting market trends, even as long as ordinary business cycles, is stressed frequently One result is that its subscribers do not include a large percentage of brokers’ offices needing to generate commissions.

b. A second result is that AIS publications do not appeal to the millions of investors who are addicted to chasing stock-market fluctuations.”

Inquiry, of course, has no necessary end. All that we think we know must be considered refutable. Therefore, in the following article we reassess the question of market timing over the business cycle, considering that nearly 36 years of data have accumulated since ECH’s passing.

Also in This Issue:

Market Trends and Business Cycles
“Tactical Allocation” funds: How have they Fared?
The High-Yield Dow Investment Strategy
Recent Market Statistics
The Dow-Jones Industrials Ranked by Yield
Asset Class Investment Vehicles